Response to A. Makulilo ' s article on IPSOS ' 2013 Voter Intention Survey Performance
Abstract
This piece critically assesses the article, "Poll- ' Pollution ' ?: The politics of numbers in the 2013 elections in Kenya", by Alexander Makulilo, recently published in the African Review (Vol. 40, No. 2, 2013, p. 1-32). In the article, the author subjects the survey work related to the March, 2013 Kenyan election conducted by the Kenyan branch of the international market research and media-monitoring firm, IPSOS, to harsh criticism, stemming from various purported methodological failures and deliberate bias. This response, by IPSOS-Kenya ' s chief Research Analyst, comprehensively addresses these criticisms. In doing so, it seeks to reveal the author ' s insufficient appreciation of such methodology, while raising two critical questions that he conveniently avoids: how credible does he consider the official results, and how close to even these contested results would any final poll €“ concluded over a week before the election itself €“ have to be in order to win his approval?References
Africa Confidential, 2013. "The Long, Long Vote Count", Vol. 54, No. 13, June, 21.
Africog/KPTJ 2013. Election Series: ' Election Day 2013 and its Aftermath ' , www.africog.org/sites/default/files/Election-Day-2013-and-itsAftermath.pdf (accessed: May 10, 2014).
Bratton, M., Mattes, R. and Gyimah-Boadi, E. 2005. Public Opinion, Democracy and Market Reform in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Carter Center 2013. "Observing Kenya ' s March 2013 National Elections: Final Report", November: Atlanta.
Cheeseman, N. 2008. "The Kenyan Elections of 2007: An Introduction", Journal of Eastern African Studies 2, 2: 166-84.
Ferree, K. E., Gibson, C. and Long, J. 2014. "Voting behavior and electoral irregularities in Kenya ' s 2013 Election", Journal of Eastern African Studies 8, 1: 153-72.
Gibson, C. C. and Long, J. 2009. "The presidential and parliamentary elections in Kenya, December 2007", Electoral Studies 28, 3: 497-502.
Hopkins, D. J. 2009. "No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Polls Mislead about Black and Female Candidates", Journal of Politics 71, 3: 769-81.
Igo, S. E. 2007. The Averaged American: Surveys, Citizens, and the Making of a Mass Public. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Issenberg, S. 2012. The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns. New York: Crown Publishers.
Kegoro, G. 2013. "A Review of the Supreme Court Judgment", Saturday Nation, April, 20.
Kenya Television Network/KTN 2014. Inside Story, http://www.nairobiexposed.com/2014/04/22/jicho-pevu-insidestory-2013-elections-part-1-part-2-video/ (accessed: April 20, 2014).
Long, J. D., Kanyinga, K., Ferree, K. E. and Gibson, C. 2013. "Choosing Peace over Democracy", Journal of Democracy 24, 3: 140-55.
Maina, W. 2013. "Five key reasons Kenya's Supreme Court failed crucial election petition test", The East African, April, 20-26.
Makulilo, A. 2012. ' ' Where have all researchers gone? ' Use and abuse of polls for the 2010 elections in Tanzania ' , International Journal of Peace and Development Studies, 3, 3: 33-56.
Makulilo, A. 2013. "Poll- ' Pollution ' ?: The politics of numbers in the 2013 elections in Kenya", the African Review 40, 2: 1-32.
Mars Group 2013. "Kenya Audit Report on 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election Results", http://www.marsgroupkenya.org/blog/2013/09/03/marsgroup-kenya-report-audit-report-on-2013-kenyan-presidential-electionresults/ (accessed: December 21, 2013).
Monroe, A. D. 1975. Public Opinion in America, New York, Dodd Mead & Co.
Ongoya, E. 2013. "Supreme Court too casual in ' Raila Vs IEBC & Others"; http://www.thepeoplescourt.co.ke/opinions/173-supreme-court-toocasual-in-raila-vs-iebc- (accessed: May 20, 2013).
Republic of Kenya 2008. Report of the Independent Review Commission (IREC), Nairobi, Government Printer.
Silver, N. 2012a. "Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race", 10 November; http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-bestand-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0 (accessed: January 5, 2014).
Silver, N. 2012b. "Google or Gallup? Changes in Voters ' Habits Reshape Polling World", New York Times, November 11.
The Star 2013. "Are Kenyans lying to poll researchers?", Thursday, 7 February; http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-106233/arekenyans-lying-poll-researchers#sthash.xKNz3gxz.dpuf (accessed: December 21, 2013).
de Torrente, N. 2013. "Understanding the 2011 Ugandan elections: the contribution of public opinion surveys", Journal of Eastern African Studies, 7, 3: 530-48.
Wolf, T. 2009. ' ' Poll poison ' ?: Politicians and polling in the 2007 Kenya Election", Journal of Contemporary African Studies 27, 3: 279-304.
Wolf, T. 2013. "Opinion Polls: Factors that might influence outcome", Sunday Nation, February, 24.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright © by Department of Political Science and Public Administration, University of Dar es Salaam
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher, except for short extracts in fair dealing, for research or private study, critical scholarly review or discourse with an acknowledgement.
The African Review: A Journal of African Politics, Development and International Affairs [ISSN 0856-0056 (Print) & ISSN 1821-889X (Online)] is published bi-annually, June and December by the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35042 €“ Dar es Salaam €“ Tanzania
