An Analysis of Changes in Climate Variability and the Persisting Flood Events in Kinondoni District, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract

Th is paper off ers an analytical view on climate variability and fl ood events in the City of Dar es Salaam.
Th is is a response to a central question whether there is relationship between substantial changes in climate
variability especially rainfall and temperature to the persistence of fl ood events. Th e study gathered climatology
data from two weather stations provided by Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) and employed mixed
methods approach in data collection, analysis and presentation of fi ndings. Th e study revealed that temperature
has shown a signifi cant increasing trend to about 2.45 0C in the last 31 years, while rainfall data indicated
the decline in annual rainfall especially during short-rainy seasons. Furthermore, there was a relative increase
in rains in March and April unlike in May where there is a decline in rainfall. Despite all these changes,
correlation value between rainfall intensities and fl ood events was found to be 0.5 indicating a weak to moderate
positive relationship. It is under this regards where poor planning in infrastructure and poor waste disposal
plays a critical amplifying role in persistence fl oods. Th erefore this paper recommends that, since temperature
has shown an increasing trend then future scenarios of climate change in region should not be underestimated
or exaggerated at all levels of decision making, planning and development.

Keywords: Climate variability, Climate Change and fl ood events.