Modelling the Impacts of Immigrants on COVID 19 Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

Alfred K. Hugo, Goodluck M. Mlay, Moses Baraka Kabigi


The COVID-19 pandemic began in Wuhan City in the Hubei province of China in December 2019. The disease spread quickly in many countries around the world due to mobility of people from one location to another. As a result, a COVID-19 mathematical model with the impacts on immigrants was proposed to study its transmission dynamics and possible control measures. The reproduction number was determined by using the next-generation technique and found to be 0.636, indicating that the transmission could be minimized in the community if all immigrants were effectively controlled. The Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was applied in analysing control strategies which are screening of immigrants, provision of public education to raise community awareness, and treatment of infected individuals. The simulated results revealed that a combination of public education, screening of all immigrants, and treatment of infected individuals plays a significant role in reducing COVID-19 transmission in the community.

Keywords: COVID-19, Immigrants, Optimal control theory.

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