Cysticercosis and Taeniasis in Humans, Pigs and Cattle: A Potential Extinction or Outbreak

Abstract

Taeniasis and cysticercosis pose a health concern on both humans and animals, as well as the economy of livestock farmers in rural areas. This study examines cysticercosis and taeniasis transmission dynamics in human, pig and cattle populations. Both deterministic and continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic approaches are used. For deterministic and CTMC stochastic models, we used the next generation approach and the multitype branching process respectively to calculate the basic reproduction number and the stochastic threshold. The potential probability of cysticercosis and taeniasis extinction is computed through numerical simulations for the CTMC model using 10,000 sample paths and altering the initial values for classes that are infected. The findings demonstrate that when diseases’ outbreak occur, the CTMC stochastic model’s solutions resemble those of deterministic model quite closely. The findings also suggest that the likelihood of diseases’ extinction is high if they develop from a small number of taenia eggs. If the infections, however, emerge from humans with cysticercosis, they will perish. If the infections arise from either infected beef and pork or humans with taeniasis, there is a significant diseases’ outbreak in the human, pig and cattle populations. Therefore, at the beginning of a diseases’ outbreak, management strategies that concentrate on reducing taeniasis-infected individuals and consumption of infectious beef and pork can help in regulating the transmission of the diseases in humans, pigs, and cattle.